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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."